Basketball has been solved, or so it seems. How much of the modern scoring boom is evolution, and how much is artificially inflated?

Is This Supposed To Be Beautiful Basketball?

The Miami Heat are 15-15. .500. They stand 8th in the East. This season, they’re 14th in offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) and 4th in defensive rating (opponent points per 100 possessions). Those numbers aren’t particularly impressive, as other teams are in a similar spot, too.

But Miami leads the league in 140+ point games this season.

And for what exactly? They aren’t actually a generationally good offense that dismantles every defense in front of them. If they were, they’d lead the league in points per game and offensive rating. They’d win more games. The best they’ll do is be a tough out in the first round. The other two teams with the most 140+ point games this season? The 8-23 New Orleans Pelicans and the 10-19 Utah Jazz. For years now, the NBA has become a more offensively oriented league. Pace is up, 3-point attempts are up, and 20 players are averaging 25+ points per game. A number that used to be reserved for the league’s premier scoring weapons just 15 years ago is now being achieved by second options. Jamal Murray and Austin Reaves both have MVP-caliber teammates averaging 30-point triple doubles while scoring 25-28 a night themselves.

Basketball Evolution

The offensive explosion in the modern era can be credited to innovators like the seven-seconds Suns, the Heatles with point-forward Bron, the Harden-Morey Rockets, and most notoriously the Golden State dynasty. These teams laid the blueprint for 2020s championship contenders. Surround offensive superstars with versatile 3-and-D wings and forwards, space out the floor, and let the star cook. The teams that win the championship every single year master this formula. I absolutely love this for the game of basketball because there’s so much more creativity if every player can do some combination of shoot, dribble/drive, pass, and defend. But that can only explain so much. While offenses are enabled by the amount of space, they’re also enabled by lax officiating and handcuffed defenses.

Don’t Blame the Refs…

I myself am a referee for a city youth league. Reffing is a tough job, and it’s hard to make the right calls when there’s fast paced action and the stakes are so high. I don’t think the horrible officiating this season is a shortcoming of individual referees as many fans have claimed. It’s the league office. Forget the “art” or “spirit” of the game, the NBA is ignoring the fundamentals of basketball. Carries and travels are uncalled while offensive players recklessly barrel through defenders. Sloppy step-throughs, pivots, gathers, and euro-steps are excused while only getting more egregious. I’m a huge fan of the gather step because it’s an incredible tool to misdirect defenders and create open shots. But “it’s a gather step” is becoming an excuse for missteps and a unsound fundamentals.

I Have Receipts…

Check this play from Grayson Allen against the Timberwolves where he mistimes his gather:

Or this play by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander where he lifts his pivot foot multiple times:

We’ve gotten too caught up with “technically, it’s not a travel,” but that logic only applies if the moves are performed correctly. In the full speed of a 48-minute game, even professional, top-of-the-line players won’t be sharp about their footwork 100% of the time. So, if it looks like a travel, call it. These calls can set the tone over an 82-game season. NBA players are more than capable of adapting their games to how officials are enforcing the rules. We aren’t that far removed from this clip of Kobe Bryant:

There’s no stutter-step, no dragging of his feet, nothing but sharp, practiced footwork. It’s fundamentally sound and artistically executed. Compare that to this clip of Giannis:

Sure, Giannis’s hands stay on the side of the ball while it hovers in his palm, but this is not basketball fundamentals or in the spirit of the game. This move is technically correct, but come on. It sets a horrible precedent for other plays that are sloppier in their execution. Players can respond by doing what they’re paid millions to do: get better. Sticking with Giannis, he’s one of the worst repeat offenders of carry/travel rules. Sure, he takes incredibly long strides, and for the most part, his footwork is pretty crisp. But the blatant violations are somehow missed.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, while being one of my favorite players to watch, is probably the most notorious rule-bender in the league. Check this play from the Finals last year:

I’m not sure where to start. The clear stiff-arm offensive foul (he does that a lot) that sheds Nesmith? The stutter-step gather into the shot? The carry cut out from this clip? The referee could have called any of these three things, take your pick. SGA truly is an all-time great scoring guard who led his team to a championship. It’s hard to manufacture that. I won’t reduce him to a foul-baiting flop artist, but if officiated fairly, Shai probably doesn’t average 32.5 points per game anymore. Maybe it’s 28 or 29. But that’s already elite. Don’t make it easy to score 30; it clouds the true impact of modern offensive juggernauts like Shai, Luka, and Jokić.

“My Whole Life is Consistent…” Except the Officiating

The OKC Thunder are possibly the greatest defensive team of all time. Elite personnel, top to bottom. But a lot of fouls aren’t being called. Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, and JDub constantly get away with blatant grappling and hand-checks. Yes, the Thunder are mostly very good about not fouling, but consistency of officiating matters for offenses and defenses. Call the reach-ins, blocking fouls, shooting fouls, charges, carries, travels, illegal screens, everything the exact same way for every team and player, NBA. Basketball should be the same sport in every arena.

Basketball Odyssey—A Hero’s Journey

What makes all-time great superstars special? MJ, LeBron, Kobe, KD, Steph? They got to their spots and made an impact despite the adversity in front of them, whether it was physical defenses, rule changes, or a lack of skill. In the 1980s, Michael Jordan hit a wall against the Bad Boy Pistons. Sure, he scored a good bit, but he wasn’t like Mike at all. Forced to go left, body stronger defenders, and with no good teammates to pass to, it seemed as though there was a formula for stopping the most unstoppable scorer in the world. In 1991, after losing to the Pistons again, MJ bulked up, worked on his back-to-the-basket game, was comfortable going left, and was infinitely more polished and composed. He won three straight championships immediately after.

LeBron James was by far and away the best player in the world entering the 2010-11 season. His Heatles were clear championship favorites. But they lost to a Mavericks team led by an absolutely unconscious Dirk Nowitzki. LeBron posted the worst numbers of his career while being the clear favorite to win it all. He was already the villain, choosing to turn his free agency into a spectacle, joining a stacked roster with two other All-NBA players in Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Now, LeBron was an unsuccessful villain. The Mavs exposed his inconsistent jumpshot and back-to-the-basket game, to the point where 6’9 LeBron couldn’t back down 5’10 JJ Barea in the post. So, LeBron trained with Hakeem Olajuwon the following offseason, worked on his post game and jumpshot, and hit one of the greatest peaks of all time from 2012 to 2014, winning 2 championships.

Steph Curry suffered an MCL sprain in the 2016 playoffs, and the Warriors blew a 3-1 series lead against LeBron’s Cavaliers. The Cavs took full advantage of Steph’s lack of quickness, body-checking him as he moved off screens to throw him off his rhythm. We saw the result of that series 6 years later in 2022, when Steph used his added strength and balance to knife through a suffocating Celtics defense in the Finals. All of the greats faced incredible lows in their careers, only to experience their highest of highs immediately after. But if the league continues to make the game easier for offensive players, how great are these guys really if they smudge the line between ethical hoops and grifting?

Listen Up, NBA

The NBA got one massive thing wrong about their fans. We do not care for random players putting up 40 while bad teams put up 140. We want a story, where the hero falls only to rise again or where the hero fails, and the villain finishes the job. In order to have such a story, there needs to be a barrier in basketball itself. If the barrier that is rules and physical defense erodes, so does the story of the champions.

For cool basketball stats, visuals, and illustrations: check out https://www.statmuse.com/nba

My inspiration for this article, by Thinking Basketball: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NWDEbashTk&pp=ygUTdGhpbmtpbmcgYmFza2V0YmFsbA%3D%3D

My most recent article, if you’d like to know more about my work: https://theridgeguy.com/addressing-socioeconomic-disparities-strategies-for-promoting-access-to-healthy-foods-and-improving-health-equity-in-washington-state/